MVP MMA Case Study: Watchlist and Monitoring Proposal.
This document can stand alone or serve as an appendix to the executive briefing. It lists what to track between the September 25, 2026 source cutoff and the first MVP MMA event, and it proposes a monitoring service to track it. Independent portfolio case study built only from public information; not affiliated with or endorsed by MVP or PFL.
Watchlist
Each item is a question to track, not a fact. The baseline column is the status as of September 25, 2026. Tier sets the response time: Tier 1 is an alert within 24 hours, Tier 2 goes into the weekly report, and Tier 3 goes into the monthly review.
| ID | Watch item | Issue | Baseline (Sep 25) | Trigger | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | Who is named chief executive, and how | 4 | Martin resigned; Bidarian endorsed but not named [P1, S1, S2]. Wikipedia, LinkedIn, and PFL pages still list Martin [D1]. | Company or board release naming a CEO, or an exit by any other executive | 1 |
| W2 | U.S. media partner for MVP MMA | 1, 2 | None announced; ESPN deal ends in 2026; ESPN, Netflix, Amazon, and Fox mentioned [P3, P4, P7] | Any partner announcement, or credible report of one; note whether it lands before or after Jan 1 | 1 |
| W3 | How PFL fighter contracts transfer | 1, 2 | No company statement (no source) | Company statement; a fighter or manager speaking publicly about their terms | 1 |
| W4 | Fighter pay: disclosures, complaints, commitments | 2 | Pay criticism leads search [D1]; sponsor policy and $40K minimum on record for MVP MMA 1 only [P9, P10] | Purse disclosures after PFL Chicago; any public fighter complaint; any commitment extending P9 or P10 | 1 (complaint or commitment), 2 (disclosures) |
| W5 | Talent movement between MVP/PFL and the UFC | 3 | UFC signed Parnasse and Despaigne before the merger [S6, S11, S12; P13, P14]; Parnasse won the UFC Paris main event on Sep 5 [P13]; fans expect flow toward MVP [D2] | Any signing or release in either direction | 1 |
| W6 | UFC and White statements; Paul-White exchanges | 3 | White dismissed the merger on record [P11]; Paul challenged White [S7] | New on-record remark by White or TKO; Paul response | 2 |
| W7 | Jake Paul's fights, role, and conduct | 4 | Boxing return planned; MMA debut intended for 2027, no date [P6]; fans see Paul as a net asset [D2] | Fight announced; controversy; Paul speaking on contracts, finances, or leadership | 1 (controversy), 2 (other) |
| W8 | Brand name and search identity | 1 | MVP MMA per release [P5]; one outlier report of a new name [S8]; "MVP" collides with Michael Page in search [D1] | Release confirming or changing the name; share of "MVP MMA" page-one results about the company | 2 |
| W9 | Owned answers in search | 1, 4 | No owned answers on ownership, CEO, pay, or 2027 viewing [D1] | Company page ranks for a D1 query; AI Overview names a CEO or partner | 2 |
| W10 | Fan frames on Reddit | All | UFC comparison and leadership lead; leadership comments mostly negative; 7 comments assume Netflix [D2] | New event thread; leadership or pay frame turns majority negative | 2 |
| W11 | Title lineage at crossover | 1 | PFL champions carry into MVP MMA [P3, P4]; new PFL women's flyweight title at PFL Chicago [P12] | Oct 16 result; any statement on belts or rankings after Jan 1 | 3 |
| W12 | International media partners | 1 | 34 partners (company-reported); the company says it will maintain the relationships [P5]; brand transition terms not on record | Any partner renewal, exit, or rebrand notice | 3 |
Key dates: PFL Chicago, October 16, 2026 [P12]. Branding crossover, January 1, 2027 [P4]. The first MVP MMA event with a U.S. partner has no date yet [P3].
Monitoring service proposal
Purpose. Town Squared Strategies will tell the chief executive within 24 hours when a watchlist item moves, and keep the issue ratings current until the first MVP MMA event.
Scope and term. October 1, 2026 through the first MVP MMA event, or March 31, 2027 if earlier. The service covers the 12 watchlist items and the four rated issues.
Methodology.
- Fact sources, checked daily. Company newsrooms and executive social accounts; ESPN, MMA Junkie, MMA Fighting, Sherdog, Yahoo Sports, and SportsPro; athletic commission purse disclosures. Every new fact receives a P or S ID in the source log, under the existing rule that primary sources govern facts.
- Search, captured every two weeks. Rerun the 15 D1 queries with the same settings: logged out, hl=en, gl=us, pws=0. Code the results with the approved D1 codebook and log each capture as a new D entry, so every change can be compared with the September 25 baseline. Workflows 1 and 2 set out the step-by-step method for the CEO and fighter pay searches.
- Fan discussion, coded per event. Code the top 50 comments of each major r/MMA thread with the D2 codebook. Add X and YouTube comments as a pilot in month two, and report them separately until a codebook is tested on them.
- Triggers. Tier 1 items send an alert within 24 hours. Tier 2 items appear in the weekly report. Tier 3 items go into a monthly rating review.
- Quality. One coder with a 10 percent sample reviewed by a second reviewer. Codebook changes are logged, and trend lines break wherever the codebook changes.
Outputs.
- Tier 1 alert: what happened, source ID, affected issue, recommended holding line.
- Weekly one-page report: watchlist status, search and fan movement, and new misconceptions.
- Monthly memo: proposed rating changes. Approved changes go into issue analysis addenda, not into the main documents.
Limits. Search and Reddit data are observational and not representative of the fan base. Paid listening tools and polling are out of scope. Adding them is the first upgrade to recommend if a Tier 1 event breaks.
Effort. About 4 hours a week, plus about 2 hours per Tier 1 event.
Decision. The term and Tier 1 triggers were approved on September 25, 2026. Alerting starts October 1.